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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."